Assumption Mapping
Assumption mapping reveals critical insights into understanding the importance and evidence behind various beliefs, enabling practitioners to prioritize testing efforts and make informed decisions for successful outcomes.
The Five Categories
- Desirability — Beliefs about what people want or value
- Viability — Beliefs about resources and sustainability
- Feasibility — Beliefs about technical or operational possibilities
- Usability — Beliefs about how people will interact
- Ethical — Beliefs about impacts and implications
The Four Quadrants
Plot each assumption on two axes: How important is this to success? and How much evidence do we have?
| Low Evidence | High Evidence | |
|---|---|---|
| High Importance | 🔴 Leap of Faith — Test these first | 🟢 Safe Assumptions — Document and monitor |
| Low Importance | 🟡 Quick Checks — Test if easy | ⚪ Validated Low Priority — Move on |
30-Minute Mapping Session
List assumptions (10 min) — Ask: What must be true for this to succeed? Generate as many as you can without filtering.
Plot the important ones (10 min) — Select your top 5-7 assumptions. Place each on the matrix. Don't debate placement too long—gut reactions are fine.
Plan next steps (10 min) — For each "leap of faith" assumption, identify one way you might test it. Could be a conversation, observation, small experiment, or desk research.
Testing Methods by Effort
- Quick (hours): Desk research, asking colleagues, reviewing past data
- Medium (days): Informal conversations with visitors/stakeholders, reviewing comparable cases
- Deeper (weeks): Structured interviews, observation protocols, pilot programs
Adapted from Teresa Torres' work on continuous discovery and assumption testing.